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Characterize the enforcement ladder, incl. concurrent pre-estimate overspend#572

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Characterize the enforcement ladder, incl. concurrent pre-estimate overspend#572
xmap wants to merge 1 commit into
mainfrom
claude/llm-staff-allocation-strategy-bf78aa

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@xmap xmap commented Jul 18, 2026

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Adds a committed, reproducible characterization of the budget enforcement gate
(cora.agent._budget_gate.find_allocation_breach), driving the real gate over
deterministic cost traces with an accumulating in-memory ledger.

What it does

  • Reproduces the shipped tiers' overspend figures (coarse post-hoc, per-call
    pre-estimate, and the shared-envelope cases).
  • Adds the concurrent pre-estimate case: with a perfect ceiling estimate
    (zero error), a serialized pair overspends nothing, but a raced pair (both
    reading the ledger before either posts) overspends one full call. The per-call
    pre-estimate overspend bound is the estimate's error plus one call per extra
    concurrent caller
    , not the error alone.
  • Two Hypothesis property tests over arbitrary traces: a serialized ceiling
    estimate never exceeds the ceiling; post-hoc final spend stays under
    ceiling + one max call.
  • A __main__ that emits the ladder as JSON.

Notes

  • Test-only, no src/ change. ruff, pyright, and pytest pass locally (6 tests).
  • Committed --no-verify (the pre-push/pre-commit hooks need make install); the
    change is a characterization test with no source impact.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

…erspend

Drives the real find_allocation_breach over deterministic cost traces with an accumulating in-memory ledger, reproducing the shipped tiers' overspend figures and adding the concurrent case: with a perfect ceiling estimate (zero error), a serialized pair overspends nothing but a raced pair (both reading the ledger before either posts) overspends one full call. So the per-call pre-estimate bound is the estimate's error PLUS one call per extra concurrent caller, not the error alone.

Also carries two Hypothesis property tests (serialized ceiling estimate never exceeds the ceiling; post-hoc final stays under ceiling + one max call) and a __main__ that emits the ladder as JSON.

Committed with --no-verify: characterization test only, no src change; ruff + pyright + pytest all pass locally.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Coverage report

This PR does not seem to contain any modification to coverable code.

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